He concludes: "Despite a slew of carefully researched and insightful
books on the subject, the reason why the United States responded to the
al Qaeda attack by invading Iraq remains to some extent an enigma" (p.
3). Nonetheless, his critiques of the books he has chosen are so well
done and fair that they constitute one of the best introductions to the
subject. They also have the advantage in several cases of making it
unnecessary to read the original.
Holmes interrogates his subjects cleverly. His main questions and the key books he dissects for each of them are:
* Did Islamic religious extremism cause 9/11? Here he supplies his own
independent analysis and conclusion (to which I turn below).
* Why did American military preeminence breed delusions of omnipotence, as exemplified in Robert Kagan's Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order
(Knopf, 2003)? While not persuaded by Kagan's portrayal of the United
States as "Mars" and Europe as "Venus," Holmes takes Kagan's book as
illustrative of neoconservative thought on the use of force in
international politics: "Far from guaranteeing an unbiased and
clear-eyed view of the terrorist threat, as Kagan contends, American
military superiority has irredeemably skewed the country's view of the
enemy on the horizon, drawing the United States, with appalling
consequences, into a gratuitous, cruel, and unwinnable conflict in the
Middle East" (p. 72).
* How was the war lost, as analyzed in Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq by Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor (Pantheon, 2006)? Holmes regards this book by Gordon, the military correspondent of the New York Times,
and Trainor, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant general, as the best
treatment of the military aspects of the disaster, down to and
including U.S. envoy L. Paul Bremer's disbanding of the Iraqi military.
I would argue that Fiasco (Penguin 2006) by the Washington Post's
Thomas Ricks is more comprehensive, clearer-eyed, and more critical.
• How did a tiny group of individuals, with eccentric theories and
reflexes, recklessly compound the country's post-9/11 security
nightmare? Here Holmes considers James Mann's Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush's War Cabinet
(Viking, 2004). One of Mann's more original insights is that the
neocons in the Bush administration were so bewitched by Cold War
thinking that they were simply incapable of grasping the new realities
of the post-Cold War world. "In Iraq, alas, the lack of a major
military rival excited some aging hard-liners into toppling a regime
that they did not have the slightest clue how to replace…. We have only
begun to witness the long-term consequences of their ghastly misuse of
unaccountable power" (p. 106).
* What roles did Vice
President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld play in
the Bush administration, as captured in Michael Mann's Incoherent Empire
(Verso, 2003)? According to Holmes, Mann's work "repays close study,
even by readers who will not find its perspective altogether congenial
or convincing." He argues that perhaps Mann's most important
contribution, even if somewhat mechanically put, is to stress the
element of bureaucratic politics in Cheney's and Rumsfeld's
manipulation of the neophyte Bush: "The outcome of inter- and
intra-agency battles in Washington, D.C., allotted disproportionate
influence to the fatally blurred understanding of the terrorist threat
shared by a few highly placed and shrewd bureaucratic infighters.
Rumsfeld and Cheney controlled the military; and when they were given
the opportunity to rank the country's priorities in the war on terror,
they assigned paramount importance to those specific threats that could
be countered effectively only by the government agency over which they
happened to preside" (p. 107).
* Why did the U.S. decide to
search for a new enemy after the Cold War, as argued by an old cold
warrior, Samuel Huntington, in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order
(Simon and Schuster, 1996)? It is not clear why Holmes included
Huntington's eleven-year-old treatise on "Allah made them do it" in his
collection of books on post-Cold War international politics except as
an act of obeisance to establishmentarian — and especially
Council-on-Foreign-Relations — thinking. Holmes regards Huntington's
work as a "false template" and calls it misleading. Well before 9/11,
many critics of Huntington's concept of "civilization" had pointed out
that there is insufficient homogeneity in Christianity, Islam, or the
other great religions for any of them to replace the position vacated
by the Soviet Union. As Holmes remarks, Huntington "finds homogeneity
because he is looking for homogeneity" (p. 136).
* What role did left-wing ideology play in legitimating the war on terror, as seen by Samantha Power in "A Problem from Hell": America and the Age of Genocide
(Basic, 2002). As Holmes acknowledges, "The humanitarian
interventionists rose to a superficial prominence in the 1990s largely
because of a vacuum in U.S. foreign-policy thinking after the end of
the Cold War…. Their influence was small, however, and after 9/11, that
influence vanished altogether." He nonetheless takes up the
anti-genocide activists because he suspects that, by making a
rhetorically powerful case for casting aside existing decision-making
rules and protocols, they may have emboldened the Bush administration
to follow suit and fight the "evil" of terrorism outside the
Constitution and the law. The idea that Power was an influence on
Cheney and Rumsfeld may seem a stretch — they were, after all, doing
what they had always wanted to do — but Holmes' argument that "a savvy
prowar party may successfully employ humanitarian talk both to gull the
wider public and to silence potential critics on the liberal side" (p.
157) is worth considering.
* How did pro-war liberals help stifle national debate on the wisdom of the Iraq war, as illustrated by Paul Berman in Power and the Idealists (Soft Skull Press, 2005)? Wildly overstating his influence, Holmes writes, Berman, a regular columnist for The New Republic,
"first tried to convince us that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, far
from being a tribal war over scarce land and water, is part of the
wider spiritual war between liberalism and apocalyptic irrationalism,
not worth distinguishing too sharply from the conflict between America
and al Qaeda. He then attempted to show that Saddam Hussein and Osama
bin Laden represented two 'branches' of an essentially homogeneous
extremism" (p. 181). Berman, Holmes points out, conflated
anti-terrorism with anti-fascism in order to provide a foundation for
the neologism "Islamo-fascism." His chief reason for including Berman
is that Holmes wants to address the views of religious fundamentalists
in their support of the war on terrorism.
* How did
democratization at the point of an assault rifle become America's
mission in the world, as seen by the apostate neoconservative Francis
Fukuyama in America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy
(Yale University Press, 2006)? Holmes is interested in Fukuyama, the
neoconservatives' perennial sophomore, because he offers an insider's
insights into the chimerical neocon "democratization" project for the
Middle East.
Fukuyama argues that democracy is the most
effective antidote to the kind of Islamic radicalism that hit the
United States on September 11, 2001. He contends that the root of
Islamic rebellion is to be found in the savage and effective repression
of protestors — many of whom have been driven into exile — in places
like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Terrorism is not the enemy,
merely a tactic Islamic radicals have found exceptionally effective.
Holmes writes of Fukuyama's argument, "[T]o recognize that America's
fundamental problem is Islamic radicalism, and that terrorism is only a
symptom, is to invite a political solution. Promoting democracy is just
such a political solution" (p. 209).
The problem, of course, is that not even the neocons are united on
promoting democracy; and, even if they were, they do not know how to go
about it. Fukuyama himself pleads for "a dramatic demilitarization of
American foreign policy and a re-emphasis on other types of policy
instruments." The Pentagon, in addition to its other deficiencies, is
poorly positioned and incorrectly staffed to foster democratic
transitions.
* Why is the contemporary American antiwar movement so anemic, as seen through the lens of history by Geoffrey Stone in Perilous Times: Free Speech in Wartime from the Sedition Act of 1798 to the War on Terrorism
(W. W. Norton, 2004)? Holmes has nothing but praise for Stone's history
of expanded executive discretion in wartime. A key question raised by
Stone is why the American public has not been more concerned with what
happened in Iraq at Abu Ghraib prison and in the wholesale destruction
of the Sunni city of Fallujah. As Holmes sees it, the Bush
administration, at least in this one area, was adept at subverting
public protest. Among the more important lessons George Bush, Dick
Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Karl Rove, and others learned from the Vietnam
conflict, he writes, was that if you want to suppress domestic
questioning of foreign military adventures, then eliminate the draft,
create an all-volunteer force, reduce domestic taxes, and maintain a
false prosperity based on foreign borrowing.
* How did the
embracing of American unilateralism elevate the Office of the Secretary
of Defense over the Department of State, as put into perspective by
John Ikenberry in After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars
(Princeton University Press, 2001)? This book is Holmes' oddest choice
— a dated history from an establishmentarian point of view of the
international institutions created by the United States after World War
II, including the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and
NATO, all of which Ikenberry, a prominent academic specialist in
international relations, applauds. Holmes agrees that, during the Cold
War, the United States ruled largely through indirection, using
seemingly impartial international institutions, and eliciting the
cooperation of other nations. He laments the failure to follow this
proven formula in the post-9/11 era, which led to the eclipse of the
State Department by the Defense Department, an institution hopelessly
ill-suited for diplomatic and nation-building missions.
* Why
do we battle lawlessness with lawlessness (for example, by torturing
prisoners) and concentrate extra-Constitutional authority in the hands
of the president, as expounded by John Yoo in The Powers of War and Peace: The Constitution and Foreign Affairs After 9/11
(University of Chicago Press, 2005)? In this final section, Holmes puts
on his hat as the law professor he is and takes on George Bush's and
Alberto Gonzales' in-house legal counsel, the University of California,
Berkeley law professor John Yoo, who authored the "torture memos" for
them, denied the legality of the Geneva Conventions, and elaborated a
grandiose view of the President's war-making power. Holmes wonders,
"Why would an aspiring legal scholar labor for years to develop and
defend a historical thesis that is manifestly untrue? What is the point
and what is the payoff? That is the principal mystery of Yoo's singular
book. Characteristic of The Powers of War and Peace is the anemic relations between the evidence adduced and the inferences drawn" (p. 291).
Holmes then points out that Yoo is a prominent member of the Federalist
Society, an association of conservative Republican lawyers who claim to
be committed to recovering the original understanding of the
Constitution and which includes several Republican appointees to the
current Supreme Court. His conclusion on Yoo and his fellow neocons is
devastating: "[I]f the misbegotten Iraq war proves anything, it is the
foolhardiness of allowing an autistic clique that reads its own
newspapers and watches its own cable news channel to decide, without
outsider input, where to expend American blood and treasure — that is,
to decide which looming threats to stress and which to downplay or
ignore" (p. 301).
Is Islam the Culprit or Merely a Distraction?
In addition to these broad themes, Holmes investigates hidden agendas
and their distorting effects on rational policy-making. Some of these
are: Cheney's desire to expand executive power and weaken Congressional
oversight; Rumsfeld's schemes to field-test his theory that in modern
warfare speed is more important than mass; the plans by some of
Cheney's and Rumsfeld's advisers to improve the security situation of
Israel; the administration's desire to create a new set of permanent
U.S. military bases in the Middle East to protect the U.S. oil supply
in case of a collapse of the Saudi monarchy; and the desire to invade
Iraq and thereby avoid putting all the blame for 9/11 on al Qaeda —
because to do so would have involved admitting administration
negligence and incompetence during the first nine months of 2001 and,
even worse, that Clinton was right in warning Bush and his top
officials that the main security threat to the United States was a
potential al Qaeda attack or attacks.
This is not the place to attempt a comprehensive review of Holmes'
detailed critiques. For that, one should buy and read his book. Let me
instead dwell on three themes that I think illustrate his insight and
originality.
Holmes rejects any direct connection between Islamic religious
extremism and the 9/11 attacks, although he recognizes that Islamic
vilification of the United States and other Western powers is often
expressed in apocalyptically religious language. "Emphasizing religious
extremism as the motivation for the [9/11] plot, whatever it reveals,"
he argues, "…terminates inquiry prematurely, encouraging us to view the
attack ahistorically as an expression of 'radical Salafism,' a
fundamentalist movement within Islam that allegedly drives its
adherents to homicidal violence against infidels" (p. 2). This
approach, he points out, is distinctly tautological: "Appeals to social
norms or a culture of martyrdom are not very helpful…. They are
tantamount to saying that suicidal terrorism is caused by a proclivity
to suicidal terrorism" (p. 20).
Instead, he suggests, "The mobilizing ideology behind 9/11 was not
Islam, or even Islamic fundamentalism, but rather a specific narrative
of blame" (p. 63). He insists on putting the focus on the actual
perpetrators, the 19 men who executed the attacks in New York and
Washington — 15 Saudi Arabians, two citizens of the United Arab
Emirates, one Egyptian, and one Lebanese. None of them was particularly
religious. Three were living together in Hamburg, Germany, where they
did appear to have become more interested in Islam than they had been
in their home countries. Mohamed Atta, the leader of the group, age 33
on 9/11, had Egyptian and German degrees in architecture and city
planning and became highly politicized in favor of the Palestinian
cause against Zionism only after he went abroad.
Holmes notes, "According to the classic study of resentment, [Friedrich Nietzsche's On the Genealogy of Morals
(1887)] ‘every sufferer instinctively seeks a cause for his suffering;
more specifically, an agent, a "guilty" agent who is susceptible of
pain — in short, some living being or other on whom he can vent his
feelings directly or in effigy, under some pretext or other.' If
suffering is seen as natural or uncaused it will be coded as misfortune
instead of injustice, and it will produce resignation rather than
rebellion. The most efficient way to incite, therefore, is to indict"
(p. 64).
The role of bin Laden was, and remains, to provide
such a hyperbolic indictment — one that men like Atta would never have
heard back in authoritarian Egypt but that came through loud and clear
in their German exile. Bin Laden demonized the United States, accusing
it of genocide against Muslims and repeatedly contending that the
presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia ever since the first Gulf War
in 1991 was a far graver offense than the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, even though that had led to the death of one million
Afghans and had sent five million more into exile.
The fact that the 9/11 plot involved the attackers' own
self-destruction suggests possible irrationality on their part, but
Holmes argues that this was actually part of the specific narrative of
blame. Americans feel contempt for Muslims and ascribe little or no
value to Muslim lives. Therefore, to be captured after a terrorist
attack involved a high likelihood that the Americans would torture the
perpetrator. Suicide took care of that worry (and provided several
other advantages discussed below).
The United States as "Sole Remaining Superpower"
Another subject about which Holmes is strikingly original is the subtle
way in which the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the United
States' self-promotion as the sole remaining superpower clouded our
vision and virtually guaranteed the catastrophe that ensued in Iraq.
"Because Americans…. have sunk so much of their national treasure into
a military establishment fit to deter and perhaps fight an enemy that
has now disappeared," he argues, "they have an almost irresistible
inclination to exaggerate the centrality of rogue states, excellent
targets for military destruction, [above] the overall terrorist threat.
They overestimate war (which never unfolds as expected) and
underestimate diplomacy and persuasion as instruments of American
power" (pp. 71-72).
Holmes draws several interesting implications from this American
overinvestment in Cold-War-type military power. One is that the very
nature of the 9/11 attacks undermined crucial axioms of American
national security doctrine. In a much more significant way than in the
1993 attack on the World Trade Center, a non-state actor
on the international stage successfully attacked the United States,
contrary to a well-established belief in Pentagon circles that only
states have the capability of menacing us militarily. Equally alarming,
by employing a strategy requiring their own deaths, the terrorists
ensured that deterrence no longer held sway. Overwhelming military
might cannot deter non-state actors who accept that they will die in
their attacks on others. The day after 9/11, American leaders in
Washington D.C. suddenly felt unprotected and defenseless against a new
threat they only imperfectly understood. They responded in various
ways.
One was to recast what had happened in terms of
Cold-War thinking. "To repress feelings of defenselessness associated
with an unfamiliar threat, the decision makers' gaze slid
uncontrollably away from al Qaeda and fixated on a recognizable threat
that was unquestionably susceptible to being broken into bits" (p.312).
Holmes calls this fusion of bin Laden and Saddam Hussein a "mental
alchemy, the ‘reconceiving' of an impalpable enemy as a palpable
enemy." He endorses James Mann's thesis that Dick Cheney, Donald
Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, and others did not change the underlying
principles guiding American foreign policy in response to the 9/11
attacks; that, in fact, they did the exact opposite: "[T]he Bush
administration has managed foreign affairs so ineptly because it has
been reflexively implementing out-of-date formulas in a radically
changed security environment" (p. 106).
Unintended consequences also played a role, Holmes argues: "If
conservative Congressmen had not blocked [Pennsylvania Governor] Tom
Ridge's nomination as Defense Secretary [in 2000] for the ludicrously
immaterial reason that he was wobbly on abortion, then the
Cheney-Rumsfeld group, including Wolfowitz and [Douglas] Feith, would
have been in no position to hijack the administration's reaction to
9/11" (pp. 93-94). Rumsfeld enthusiastically endorsed Bush's
description of his "new" policies as a "war" because the Office of the
Secretary of Defense then became the lead agency in designing and
carrying out America's response.
There was little or no countervailing influence. "By sheer chance,"
Holmes writes, "Rice and Powell — no doubt orderly managers — have
pedestrian minds and perhaps deferential personalities. Neither
provided a gripping and persuasive vision of the United States' role in
the world that might have counteracted the megalomania of the
neoconservatives, and neither was capable of outfoxing the hard-liners
in an interagency power struggle" (p. 94).
The costs of equating al Qaeda with Iraq and of concentrating on a
military response were high. "It meant that some of the troops sent to
Iraq in the first wave believed, disgracefully, that they were avenging
the 3,000 dead from September 11…. Cruel and arbitrary behavior by some
U.S. forces helped stoke the violent insurgency that followed" (p.
307).
American confusion about the nature of the enemy — rogue state vs.
non-state terrorist organization — produced two different
counterstrategies, both of which almost certainly made the situation
worse. First, by focusing on a rogue state (Iraq), rather than on a
non-state actor (al Qaeda), the Pentagon drew attention to what it came
to call the "hand-off scenario" in which a nuclear-armed rogue state
might hand over weapons of mass destruction to terrorists who would use
them against the U.S. To counter this threat, the Pentagon developed a
strategy of preventive war against rogue states with the objective of
bringing about regime change in them. The only way to prevent nuclear
proliferation to terrorist groups — so the argument went — was to
forcibly democratize Middle Eastern authoritarian regimes, some of
which had long been allied with the United States.
The other strategy was a return to what seemed like a form of
deterrence: a "scare the Muslims" campaign. This involved a resort to
massive "shock and awe" bombing raids on Baghdad with the intent of
demonstrating the futility of defying the United States.
By reacting to the threat of modern terrorism with an attack on a
substitute target — without even bothering to calculate the enormous
potential costs involved — the Pentagon greatly overestimated what
military force could achieve. Both the regime-change and
overawe-the-Muslims approaches carried with them potentially
devastating unintended consequences — particularly if any of the
premises, such as about who possessed WMD, were wrong. Overly abstract
ideas were substituted for empirical knowledge of, and logical
responses to, an enemy's capabilities. Thus, insurgencies in Iraq and
Afghanistan, two devastated, poor countries, have managed to fight one
of the most powerful American expeditionary forces in history to a
virtual standstill. In short, "America's bellicose response to the 9/11
provocation was not only dishonorable and unethical, given the cruel
suffering it has inflicted on thousands of innocents, but also
imprudent in the extreme because it was bound to produce as much hatred
as fear, as much burning desire for reprisal as quaking paralysis and
docility. Some of the sickening effects are unfolding before our eyes.
That even more malevolent consequences remain in store is a grim
possibility not to be wished away" (p. 10).
Complicity of the Left in American Imperialism
Holmes is also interesting on why the American Left has been so
ineffectual in countering the efforts of Washington's pro-war party.
Deeply guilt-ridden over the Clinton administration's failure to stop
the genocide in Rwanda and frustrated by the constraints of
international law and United Nations procedures, some influential
progressives in America had already advocated a preemptive and
unilateralist turn in American foreign policy that the Bush
administration hijacked. Human rights activists had heavily promoted
intervention in Bosnia and Kosovo to halt ethnic cleansing — and doing
so without any international sanction whatsoever. Some of them became
as enthusiastic about using the American armed forces to achieve
limited foreign policy goals as many neocons. Even U.S. ambassador to
the U.N. Madeleine Albright made herself notorious with her 1993
wisecrack to then Joint Chiefs Chairman Colin Powell: "What's the point
of having this superb military that you're always talking about if we
can't use it?"
Although Holmes tries not to overstate his case, he suspects that the
humanitarian interventionism of the 1990s — at one point he speaks of
"human rights as imperial ideology" (p. 190) — may have played at least
a small role in the public's acceptance of Bush's intervention in Iraq.
If so, it is hard to imagine a better example of the disasters that
good intentions can sometimes produce. The result in Iraq, in turn, has
more or less silenced calls from the Left for further campaigns of
military intervention for humanitarian purposes. The U.S. is
conspicuously not participating in the U.N. intervention in the Darfur
region of Sudan.
The Rule of Law
As a legal scholar, Holmes is committed to the rule of law. "[L]aw is
best understood," he writes, "not as a set of rigid rules but rather as
a set of institutional mechanisms and procedures designed to correct
the mistakes that even exceptionally talented executive officials are
bound to make and to facilitate midstream readjustments and course
corrections. If we understand law, constitutionalism, and due process
in this way, then it becomes obvious why the war on terrorism is bound
to fail when conducted, as it has been so far, against the rule of law
and outside the constitutional system of checks and balances" (p. 5).
This short-circuiting of normal constitutional procedures he sees as
probably the most consequential post-9/11 blunder of the Bush
administration. The President's repeated claims that he needs high
levels of secrecy and the ability to arbitrarily cancel established law
in order to move decisively against terrorists draw his utter contempt.
"By dismantling checks and balances, along the lines idealized and
celebrated by [John] Yoo, the administration has certainly gained
flexibility in the 'war on terror.' It has gained the flexibility, in
particular, to shoot first and aim afterward" (p. 301). Although such
an assumption of dictatorial powers has happened before during periods
of national emergency in the United States, Holmes is convinced that
the humanitarian interventionism of the 1990s helped anesthetize many
Americans to the implications of what the government was doing after
9/11.
Even now, with the Iraq War all but lost and public opinion having
turned decisively against the President, there is still a flabbiness in
mainstream criticism that reveals a major weakness in the conduct of
American foreign policy. For example, while many hawks and doves today
recognize that Rumsfeld mobilized too few forces to achieve his
military objectives in Iraq, they tend to concentrate on his rejection
of former Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki's advice that he
needed a larger army of occupation. They almost totally ignore the true
national policy implications of Rumsfeld's failed leadership. Holmes
writes, "If Saddam Hussein had actually possessed the tons of chemical
and biological weapons that, in the president's talking points,
constituted the casus belli for the invasion, Rumsfeld's slimmed-down
force would have abetted the greatest proliferation disaster in world
history" (p. 82). He quotes Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor:
"Securing the WMD required sealing the country's borders and quickly
seizing control of the many suspected sites before they were raided by
profiteers, terrorists, and regime officials determined to carry on the
fight. The force that Rumsfeld eventually assembled, by contrast, was
too small to do any of this" (pp. 84-85). As a matter of fact, looters
did ransack the Iraqi nuclear research center at al Tuwaitha. No one
pointed out these flaws in the strategy until well after the invasion
had revealed that, luckily, Saddam had no WMD.
With this book, Stephen Holmes largely succeeds in elevating criticism
of contemporary American imperialism in the Middle East to a new level.
In my opinion, however, he underplays the roles of American imperialism
and militarism in exploiting the 9/11 crisis to serve vested interests
in the military-industrial complex, the petroleum industry, and the
military establishment. Holmes leaves the false impression that the
political system of the United States is capable of a successful course
correction. But, as Andrew Bacevich, author of
The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced by War,
puts it:
"None of the Democrats vying to replace President Bush is doing so with
the promise of reviving the system of checks and balances…. The aim of
the party out of power is not to cut the presidency down to size but to
seize it, not to reduce the prerogatives of the executive branch but to
regain them."
There is, I believe, only one solution to the
crisis we face. The American people must make the decision to dismantle
both the empire that has been created in their name and the huge, still
growing military establishment that undergirds it. It is a task at
least comparable to that undertaken by the British government when,
after World War II, it liquidated the British Empire. By doing so,
Britain avoided the fate of the Roman Republic — becoming a domestic
tyranny and losing its democracy, as would have been required if it had
continued to try to dominate much of the world by force. To take up
these subjects, however, moves the discussion into largely unexplored
territory. For now, Holmes has done a wonderful job of clearing the
underbrush and preparing the way for the public to address this more or
less taboo subject.