The real message of the Iowa caucus yesterday was that the long-operative Clintonian/Democratic Leadership Council assumption that the independent or unaffiliated voter bloc is composed of conservative-leaning, dim-witted and easily manipulated people has got it all wrong.
In fact, in Iowa, where unaffiliated voters are free to participate in either a Democratic or Republican caucus, 41 percent of those people voted not for the conservative, tough-talking “centrist” Hillary Clinton. They voted instead for the black, nominally anti-war candidate, Barack Obama. Another significant percentage of independents went for another progressive-sounding candidate, John Edwards. Clinton only got an embarrassing 17 percent of the unaffiliated vote.
The implications of this failure on her part are enormous when it comes to next November’s general election.
If Democratic voters in the upcoming primaries, especially in states like Pennsylvania, where independents are excluded from the voting, end up giving the nomination to Clinton, she will almost certainly end up forfeiting much of the independent vote, just as both Al Gore and John Kerry did in the last two presidential elections.
The reality is that many, if not a majority of unaffiliated
voters are not at all conservative (or dim-witted). What they are is
cynical about the current state of Tweedle-Dum/Tweedle Dee politics in
America. They see both the Democratic and Republican parties as being
of, by and for the rich and often they don’t even see the point in
voting. (They are, in other words, in many ways more politically savvy
than many registered Democratic voters, who refuse to acknowledge this
reality!)
Because of the disastrous course of the last seven
years under the Bush/Cheney administration, these independents are
willing, as they showed in 2006, to give it a shot and vote for
Democrats IF (and that word has to be capitalized and put in italics
for emphasis) the Democrats will stand for something more than just
Republicanism with frills. Exit polls in November 2006 showed that
these voters (and a majority of Democratic voters) were looking for
Democrats to stand up forcefully for the Constitution, and to put an
end to the Iraq War.
They were double-crossed. The Democratic
Congressional leadership, under the Clintonesque direction of House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have done
none of those things, choosing instead to simply pretend to be an
opposition, while actually doing nothing on either front.
It’s
an approach that Hillary Clinton clearly would continue to follow if
she were somehow to manage to get herself elected to the presidency: a
fawning obeisance to the wishes of corporate America and Wall Street,
continued foreign wars and occupations, continued “tough talk” on crime
with little or no effort to attack its causes (poverty, drugs, racism
and hopelessness).
It’s also an approach that almost certainly
would assure us another four to eight years of Republican control of
the White House.
The truth is that those independent voters who
turned out for Obama and Edwards are simply not going to vote for
Hillary Clinton in November ’08. If it were to become a choice between
Clinton and McCain, Clinton and Giuliani or Clinton and Huckabee, they
will sit the election out—or even vote Republican. And she’s not going
to get the other independents either—the ones who really are
conservative leaning. If they vote at all, they’ll go Republican,
offered the choice between Republican or Republican lite with a few
liberal bells and whistles.
Fortunately, Iowa’s Democratic and
independent voters have made it clear to the rest of the country that
voting for Hillary Clinton is to commit Democratic Party suicide. Her
whole campaign has been based upon the notion that she is the most
“electable” candidate in the Democratic field—a notion that now stands
exposed as a pathetic farce.
If Democratic primary voters in the
rest of the country are paying attention, they will quickly send her
packing back to New York, where she can continue her role, with
colleague Chuck Schumer, of Wall Street lickspittle.
The rest of
the Democrats seeking office or seeking re-election next fall should
take heed. There is a frustrated, angry and very large bloc of people
out there—independent voters—who are looking for progressive candidates
who will not just talk in buzzwords, but who will act to restore some
semblance of Constitutional government in America, and who will end the
damned war in Iraq. If they’re lucky, those voters might give them one
more chance despite the wretched betrayal of November 2006.