The public version of the proposal above reads a bit differently as
offered this afternoon by Siniora. It does not mention to the public
"due to sectarian sensitivities" points one and two above. It also
includes the formation of a national unity government in which the
minority cannot block decisions and the majority cannot impose them.
Siniora has also proposed a five-point introduction to a settlement,
including placing the two government decisions in the hands of the army
but will withdraw these quietly.
Hezbollah has issued no comment on this report as of press time.
The current situation in Hamra
Many Hezbollah fighters left the streets of Hamra and turned them over
to the Lebanese Army which had been largely absent on Friday.
Some of Hezbollah's withdrawing 'regulars' were replaced by 'reserves'.
"Its good for their training", one fellow who was obviously in charge
outside of Starbucks on Hamra Street, explained through an interpreter.
Some Hezbollah and Amal forces seemed quite willing to speak with the
media about their mission.
Some pro-opposition commentators wandered around Hamra trying to assure returning residents.
"This was not a coup! Think of it as a protest and message to Bush and
Olmert. If we wanted a coup we could surround the Serail. Mr. Siniora
would perhaps hand us the keys. We don't want them. Let's all prepare
for elections and let the people decide who sits in Parliament and
makes up Cabinet."
Hezbollah reportedly has excellent relations with the Lebanese Army and
wants to maintain them. Evidence of this is apparent today as
Hezbollah's forces made a point of politely and almost paternally
yielding some of their street corner locations to the Army with
handshakes and sometimes kisses.
Outside Costa Coffee down from the Bristol Hotel, one seasoned
Hezbollah fighter spoke to some obviously younger and 'greener' Party
members and instructed them on their duties as they relieved him and he
headed south for rest. He explained that things went fairly smoothly
yesterday and that they would likely see residents start returning to
Hamra. "Be helpful to those who need help. Assure them their
neighborhood is secure and safe. We will start no violence and if
someone else wants to we can assure those in who live in Hamra that we
will quickly deal with troublemakers".
A few isolated acts of vandalism were reported yesterday and an
internal joint Hezbollah-Amal investigation is underway to find out
about what happened and insure that there is no recurrence. "No bad
behavior by our fighters or any of our allies will be tolerated and bad
behavior (from our side) will be severely punished and if vandalism
occurred, Hezbollah will pay for it! Lebanon knows our standards.
Remember during the July 2006 War. When our fighters had to use food
and water that belonged to absent owners we left IOUs on the table.
Everyone was later paid."
Some Amal guys were looking for an open sandwich shop but doubted that
"people here in Hamra make sandwiches as great as we have in Ouzai. Our
area has the best kebabs in all of Lebanon!!" (this observer did not
have the heart to ask the young man if this was his first time outside
of his "area").
"We will be magnanimous toward our adversaries in the small victory we
achieved the past couple of days", explained 'Ali' an acquaintance of
this observer who also lives in Haret Hreik.
"If the "ruling team" wants to claim victory that is fine with us. They
can attack us verbally all they want. We are used to this. This
situation was forced on us and we defended ourselves. Now we should
seek a just and quick solution and heal any wounds", one young woman,
obviously a Hezbollah supporter explained as she chatted with some
fighters and journalists. She added, "We want dialogue and a fair
peaceful solution. We are a Resistance movement and will not
participate in a civil war".
As of this afternoon the losers and winners appear as follows:
The main losers obviously are the Bush administration, Israel and their
Welch Club allies. Personal losers are Amin Gemayel, barely still the
"leader" of the Phalange Party, as he talks tough and tries to rally
his 'forces'…from Paris. Samir Geagea has pretty much nudged him aside
and is reportedly casting his dark gaze toward Saad Hariri who may be
planning to retire from politics and help with the very big family
business. After the parties meet with President Bush next week, a
'shaking out' process may begin.
Walid Jumblatt is another loser since his provocations, taunts, and
Welch Club cheerleader role to take on Hezbollah left him at its mercy
both in the Mountains and in his Beirut home. Whatever credibility he
had has evaporated. Among the Druze there is discord and inter-party
fisticuffs as there was last night in Choufeit when Jumblatt asked the
army to occupy and secure his Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) HQ but
some of the younger members threatened violence, as the villagers
watched beneath a huge a poster of party founder Kamal Jumblatt and the
army and Jumblatt jr. backed off. PSP problems will require Walid's
sustained attention for some while party members explained last evening
to this observer.
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora loses more of his waning influence and
status. One of his main problems is that he is increasingly seen as a
Bush administration puppet. Not least of his worries this morning, as
he prepares to avoid being dumped by Bush next week, is the ringing
endorsement he received yesterday from Secretary of State Rice, without
bringing herself to mention Siniora by name:
"Our support for the legitimate Lebanese government, its democratic
institutions, and its security services is unwavering. This support is
a reflection of our unshakable commitment to the Lebanese people and
their hope for democratic change, economic prosperity, and confessional
harmony. We will stand by the Lebanese government and peaceful citizens
of Lebanon through this crisis and provide the support they need to
weather this storm."
She would not even mention his name as she employed the standard State
Department verbiage just before a US puppet is dumped. It was dusted
off from Vietnam days when JFK (Diem) and LBJ (Thieu) used almost
identical language before switching horses.
The rest of Rice's analysis seemed to many in Lebanon, whose population
is among the most politically sophisticated in many ways, as simply
obtuse: "No one has a right to deprive Lebanese citizens of their
political and economic freedom, their right to move freely within their
country, or their sense of safety and security".
State Department officials said this morning that the international
coalition supporting the Lebanese state against Hezbollah has never
been stronger. Washington believes Hezbollah has "bitten off a bit too
much" and now risks alienating the rest of Lebanon's population,
including Hezbollah's important Christian allies, an official said.
The Bush administration reminded the World that it has spent $1.3
billion over the past two years to prop up Siniora's government, with
about $400 million dedicated to boosting Lebanon's security forces.
This statement constitutes a hoax according to some informed observers
in Lebanon:
"The money the Bush administration has spent has been to create a Sunni
'Internal Security Force' not for the Lebanese but for the 'ruling
team' (the name the oppositions and its allies call the current
government of Lebanon) which is no more than a militia run by
pro-American officers. Hezbollah could defeat and disband this Bush
militia in three hours of less", according to one long time UNIFIL
program administrator.
One frustrated US Senate Intelligence Committee staffer emailed this morning with a tinge of irony and cynicism:
Referring to President Bush: "Now this loser has really done it. Having
effectively delivered Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran, he has now handed
them Lebanon. Mark my words, Saudi Arabia is next and the Saudis know
it and will make a deal with Iran."
The major winners are obvious:
Lebanon's Christian population allied with General Michel Aoun's Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM), Hezbollah, Amal and their Sunni, Druze and
international supporters.
Hassan Nasrallah's position is
probably the strongest it has ever been, not just in Lebanon but
throughout the region. If he wanted to be a dictator of all of Lebanon,
which he eschews, he could have the position today.
Rami Khoury, writing in Beirut's Daily Star this morning got it right in this observer's view when he wrote:
Nasrallah's task now is to create an inclusive environment conducive to
the answering of these and other challenges. He and his party cannot be
expected to come up with all of the solutions, and nor should they want
to: If they cannot draw other players - and not just their closest
allies - into the process, Nasrallah runs the risk of being cast as a
dictator by default.
Hizbullah and its partners have frequently argued that their
counterparts in the March 14 Forces coalition were not interested in
true partnership, only in dictating terms. Now Nasrallah has to prove
that his side is ready, willing and able to live up to its own
expectations, and speed is of the essence: After 15 years of civil war,
15 of diluted sovereignty, and three of limbo, the Lebanese deserve at
last to have a level of politics commensurate with their talents and
energies. If Nasrallah is the man who makes this happen, history will
judge his actions to have been a revolution, not a coup, and a
long-overdue one at that.
Late news is that the airport may open by Monday but this is not certain.
Franklin P. Lamb, PhD
is the Director of Americans Concerned for
Middle East Peace, Wash. DC/Beirut
and a Senior Fellow, The Institute for
Middle East Policy Dialogue, USA. He can be reached at
fplamb@gmail.com