The referendum revolved around proposed autonomy
statutes, drafted by the oligarchy without any discussion, and which
less than 15% of
crucenos
(Santa Cruz residents) had read before May 4. The statutes hand
enormous power over to the opposition-controlled prefectures, including
control over natural resources, distribution of land titles, the right
to sign international treaties and its own police force and judicial
system.
On the day, the Yes vote received 483,925 votes,
representing around 85% of the votes cast, against 85,399 No votes.
However, calls by the social movements and the Movement Towards
Socialism (MAS — Morales’s party) national government to abstain led
non-participation to rise to 39%, or 366,839 registered voters — more
than double the usual abstention rate.
This result was obtained in the face of threats and intimidation by
bosses who told workers they would loss their jobs if they did not vote
and the menacing patrols of the fascist Union Juvenil Crucenista (UJC)
— renowned for carrying out violent, racist attacks on indigenous
people.
Oppressed mobilise
However, in the “other Santa Cruz” — such as the popular urban area of
Plan Tres Mil and the rural areas of San Julian and Yacapani —
organised resistance by the popular civic committee and indigenous
campesino (peasant) organisations ensured the non-installation of voting tables.
Despite physical attacks by the UJC, which left more than 20 injured
and one dead, in these areas abstention was almost total.
Across the country, massive mobilisations were organised by the
powerful indigenous campesino organisations, together with trade unions
and urban popular organisations. A week before, Morales had called for
demonstrations in all capital cities, except Santa Cruz in order to
avoid violence, behind the banner of national unity.
Underlying these events is an intense class struggle, infused with
strong ethnic and regional components. The ruling elites are fighting
to restore the political power they have begun to lose.
The election of Morales came on the back of five years of intense
social struggle by the combative indigenous and campesino movements,
which gave birth to an alternative national project based on the
demands of nationalisation of gas and a constituent assembly to refound
Bolivia.
In December of 2005, unified behind its “political instrument” — MAS —
this movement propelled former coca growers’ union leader Morales into
the presidential palace.
Since then, Morales has initiated a process of returning Bolivia’s gas
to state hands, begun implementing an agrarian reform and organised
elections for a constituent assembly that has prepared a new draft
constitution to be submitted to a national referendum.
For the oligarchy, particularly those with interests tied to the gas
transnationals and agribusiness, these changes are intolerable.
Forced to retreat to its trenches in the east, the elite has run a
propaganda line that combines rallying against “La Paz centralism”,
tapping into the long held sentiments of a “crucenista identity” and
outright racism to regroup and mobilise a section of the white
population of the east against the government — whose stronghold is in
the impoverished and largely indigenous west. This campaign is
receiving heavy funding from the US government.
While it can not be ruled out that the oligarchy could use these social
base to move to divide Bolivia through secession, its main plan at the
moment is to put a halt on the process unfolding since Morales’
election — aiming to wear down popular support for the government by
forcing concessions from the government at the negotiating table and
paving the way towards ultimately getting rid of him, via a coup or
elections.
Post-referendum struggle
In this context, the results of the May 4 referendum were clearly not a
victory for the oligarchy. Forced to rely on fraud and intimidation,
the right was unable to get the resounding vote they would have
required to turn the results of their illegal referendum into a
legitimate mandate.
Yet nor was it a complete defeat — the large Yes vote showed that an
important section of Santa Cruz continues to back the oligarchy.
For the popular movements, the important resistance of the “other Santa
Cruz” represents a new phase in their struggle.< This was reflected
in the high abstention and the emergence of an important middle-class
layer grouped around Santa Cruz Somos Todos, who, although not part of
the MAS project, called for a No vote and support autonomy within the
framework of the new constitution.
The actions of the counterrevolution have pushed those forces in favour
of change towards greater unity. This was demonstrated in the May Day
rallies where, importantly, the Bolivian Workers’ Central (COB), which
had until now been very critical of the government, was on the main
stage promoting a united front.
The oligarchy, claiming victory from the May 4 vote, will undoubtedly
be calling for a return to the negotiating table to force concessions
out of the government to water down the new constitution and insert its
autonomy statutes.
However, these two projects are incompatible. The government needs to
shift the debate back to the draft constitution by calling the
referendum for its approval as soon as possible — as the social
movements are demanding.
Any autonomy must be within the framework of what has been
democratically decided by the constituent assembly. In this way, the
movements can counterpose their autonomy based on social justice and
solidarity to that of the Santa Cruz elites and win support among the
Santa Cruz population.
Moreover, the government needs to continue to implement its economic
program of nationalisations — such as those announced on May 1, which
included recuperating majority control of four gas transnationals and
total control over ENTEL, Bolivia’s largest telecommunications company.
These moves can demonstrate the role of a strong national state and
build the confidence and dignity of the popular movements and middle
classes to continue pushing the democratic revolution forward.
These nationalisations, along with agrarian reform and wealth
redistribution, are not only crucial to give further momentum to the
popular movements — together with a strong campaign to win the hearts
and minds of soldiers and officials in the armed forces, it is a vital
to strengthen the nationalist wing of the military against those
right-wing elements conspiring to overthrow Morales.
In a sign of the battles to come in the near future, on May 8, Cuban newspaper
Granma
reported that the Senate, controlled by the right, had passed a motion
Morales has been pushing since last year to hold a recall referendum
for the presidency as well as the nine regional governors.
To ensure that the result of May 4 can become a real victory for the
popular forces, it is necessary to continue to develop the unity that
has been built over the last few weeks to continue the mobilisation of
the masses and deepen the revolutionary process through decisive
economic and political measures.
Federico Fuentes is the editor of http://boliviarising.blogspot.com.
Writings 
Subscribe to this comment's feed
