Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in
the United States this week armed with a mandate from the Israeli
parliament. A large majority of legislators from all of Israel’s main
parties had supported a petition urging him to stand firm on the
building of Jewish settlements in occupied East Jerusalem -- the very
issue that got him into hot water days earlier with the White House.
Given the Israeli consensus on
Jerusalem, there was no way Mr Netanyahu could have avoided rubbing that
wound again in his speech on Monday to the annual conference of the
American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the powerful
pro-Israel lobby group.
He told the thousands of
delegates: “The Jewish people were building Jerusalem 3,000 years ago
and the Jewish people are building Jerusalem today. Jerusalem is not a
settlement. It is our capital.”
Citing his own policy as
inseparable from all previous Israeli governments, he added: “Everyone
knows that these neighbourhoods will be part of Israel in any peace
settlement. Therefore,
building them in no way precludes the possibility of a two-state
solution.”
Mr Netanyahu’s speech appeared
consistent with the new approach agreed by both sides to end this
particular debacle. According to the US media, a policy of “Don’t ask
and don’t tell” has been adopted to avoid making East Jerusalem an
insurmountable obstacle to negotiations.
It will be telling how the US
administration responds to the latest approval by Israeli planning
authorities of a housing project at the Shepherd’s Hotel in East
Jerusalem – this time in the even more controversial area of Sheikh
Jarrah, a Palestinian community slowly being taken over by Jewish
settlers backed by the Israeli courts.
The White House has eased its
stance chiefly because Mr Netanyahu has climbed down on two issues of
even greater importance to the administration.
First, he has agreed to make a
“significant gesture” to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president,
probably in the form of a prisoner release. That is the carrot needed to
bring Mr Abbas to the peace talks overseen by George Mitchell, the US
special peace envoy.
And second, Mr Netanyahu has
conceded that Israel will discuss the “core issues” of the conflict –
borders, Jerusalem and the Palestinian refugees – ensuring that the
negotiations are substantive rather than formal, as he had intended.
Those concessions – if Mr
Netanyahu delivers on them – should be enough to break up his far-right
coalition, a prospect the White House craves. The US administration
wants Tzipi Livni, the leader of the centrist opposition, to join Mr
Netanyahu in a new, “peacemaking coalition”.
If Mr Netanyahu could wriggle
out of this bind, he would do so. But his ace in the hole – harnessing
the might of AIPAC and its legions in Congress to back him against the
White House – looks to have been disarmed.
Comments last week by Gen David
Petraeus, the head of the US Central Command, linked Israel’s
intransigence towards the Palestinians to the spread of a hatred that
endangers US troops in the Middle East. That left the AIPAC hordes with
little option but to swallow their and Mr Netanyahu’s pride, lest they
be accused of dual loyalties.
In the words of Uri Avnery, a
former Israeli legislator: “This is only a shot across the bow, a
warning shot fired by a warship in order to induce another vessel to
follow its instructions. The warning is clear.”
And the warning is that Mr
Netanyahu must come to the negotiating table to help to establish a
Palestinian state whatever the consequences for his coalition.
But it would be unwise to assume
that the crisis over settlement building in East Jerusalem indicates
that the Obama administration plans to get any tougher with Israel on
the form of such statehood than its predecessors.
Ms Livni, unlike Mr Netanyahu,
may wish to find a solution to the conflict – or impose one – but her
terms would be far from generous. The White House knows that she, too,
is an ardent advocate of settlements in East Jerusalem. When she broke
her silence on the crisis last week, it was to emphasise that, by
“acting stupidly” in stoking a row with the US, Mr Netanyahu had risked
“weakening” Israel’s hold on Jerusalem
Instead, the signs are that
Barack Obama could be just as ready to accommodate the Israeli consensus
on East Jerusalem as the previous Bush administration was in backing
Israel’s position on keeping the overwhelming majority of West Bank
settlers in their homes on occupied Palestinian land.
Shimon Peres, the Israeli
president who is much favoured in Washington, has outlined a
“compromise” to placate the Americans. It would involve a peace deal in
which Israel keeps the large swaths of East Jerusalem already settled by
Jews, while the Palestinians would be entitled to the ghettos left
behind after four decades of illegal Israeli building.
In her own AIPAC speech, Hillary
Clinton, the US secretary of state, hinted that such a solution might
yet be acceptable to the administration. The recent US condemnation of
settlement building, she said, was not “a judgment on the final status
of Jerusalem, which is an issue to be settled at the negotiating table.
This is about getting to the table, creating and protecting an
atmosphere of trust around it -- and staying there until the job is
finally done.”
Having lost patience with Mr
Netanyahu’s lip service to Palestinian statehood, the White House
appears finally to have decided its credibility in the Middle East
depends on dragging Israel -- kicking and screaming, if needs be -- to
the negotiating table.
Mr Obama may hope that the
outcome of such a process will make US troops safer in Iraq and
strengthen his hand in the stand-off with Iran. But it remains doubtful
that the US actually has the stomach to extract from Israel the
concessions needed to create that elusive entity referred to as a viable
Palestinian state.
Jonathan Cook is a writer and journalist based in Nazareth, Israel. His latest books are “Israel and the Clash of Civilisations: Iraq, Iran and the Plan to Remake the Middle East” (Pluto Press) and “Disappearing Palestine: Israel's Experiments in Human Despair” (Zed Books). His website is www.jkcook.net.
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