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Sun

20

May

2007

Mesopotamian Black Gold and American Imperialism 2: Iran
Sunday, 20 May 2007 12:59
by Bennett Blumenberg

Would a United States attack on Iran's Nuclear Industry be a Pretext
to 'Capture' the Iranian Oil and Gas industries ?

The first article in this series discusses American interests to secure oil and gas resources and the war in Iraq.

Iran and Enriched Uranium


The American confrontation with Iran is riddled with hypocrisy and fear, as United States militaristic imperialism applies itself to a presumed threat from Iranian nuclear weapons whose development, let alone deployment, is several years away. Yes, Iran has had a nuclear technology program for many years, often aided and abetted by Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan - remember that country's notorious renegade nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Kahn. However, there is very long distance to travel in order to develop, test and deploy nuclear weapons systems.

Iran is now under extreme pressure from the United States and the European Union to stop its uranium enrichment program at the very least. However according to Richard Bennett, "The West, despite the considerable efforts of its intelligence services, largely remains unsure of the exact nature of Tehran's nuclear intentions." Until this month, it was impossible to verify Iran's statements about its nuclear industry, technological status, possible uranium enrichment and nuclear weapon capability - let alone build out capacity, delivery systems and integration within foreign policy objectives and protocols. A section of this bibliography points the reader to several articles that address these questions, perhaps the best information that might be found in public and freely available media. Only within the past few weeks, have we acquired some hard data about Iran's nuclear enrichment program.

Uranium enrichment is underway but not very advanced in Iran. And of course, possession of enriched, weapons grade uranium in and of itself does not indicate a nuclear weapon . Possible delivery systems for a nuclear warhead include short and medium range missiles launched from military aircraft, land based sites and naval warships. At present no long distance missile has been built, tested, confirmed and deployed. Iran has an arsenal of short-range, liquid-fueled missiles, including the infamous Scud, that provide a limited and inaccurate delivery potential. But then if the objective is to terrorize, missing the target is of little concern. Furthermore, threat assessment must not only look at the deployment of effective nuclear weapons delivery systems, but also Iran's foreign policy protocols within which nuclear weapons are explicitly recognized and 'ready, willing and able' to be delivered within possible war scenarios. Ironically as to this latter parameter, the United States leads the world. Iran's defiance of a UN mandate to stand down its uranium enrichment activities is an obvious matter of national pride and in and of itself, cannot indicate the state and capacity of that program.

Iran has not been forthcoming about the history of its nuclear program, and products from the uranium enrichment process have been produced in small, trial quantities. Critical centrifuge technology and engineering is an ongoing priority. On Sunday May 13, 2007 with two hours notice, the I.A.E.A.conducted an inspection of Iran's nuclear facilities [at Natanz] according to a recent article in the NY Times by David E. Sanger. "... 1,300 working centrifuges, another 300 were being tested and appeared ready to be fed raw nuclear fuel as soon as late this week, the diplomats said. Another 300 are under construction. 'They are at the stage where they are doing one cascade a week,' said one diplomat familiar with the analysis of Iran’s activities .... A “cascade” has 164 centrifuges, and experts say that at this pace, Iran could have 3,000 centrifuges operating by June — enough to make one bomb’s worth of material every year. Tehran may, the diplomat said, be able to build an additional 5,000 centrifuges by the end of the year, for a total of 8,000. The inspectors have tested the output and concluded that Iran is producing reactor-grade uranium, enriched to a little less than 5 percent purity. .... If Iran stores the uranium and later runs it through its centrifuges for another four or five months, it can raise the enrichment level to 90 percent — the level needed for a nuclear weapon. In the arcane terminology of nuclear proliferation, that is known as a “breakout capability,” the ability to throw inspectors out of the country and then produce weapons-grade fuel, as North Korea did in 2003."

"However, this is not the whole story. In April 2006, Ahmadinejad paid a little-reported visit to Neyshabour in Khorassan. This top-secret and heavily protected facility, like other such sites in Iran ringed by air defense missiles and artillery, is designed to eventually run as many as 155,000 centrifuges, enough to enrich uranium for three to five nuclear bombs a year. Once Neyshabour is operational, then without significant outside help from Russia or China, Iran would still be two to three years away from becoming a genuine nuclear power and perhaps five years from the operational deployment of a nuclear weapon [assuming no technical or supply problems of any significance arise]. " See Richard Bennett's second article in the bibliography.

Iran's progress towards enriched uranium is more advanced than previously deduced but there is still a long, technologically challenging, road ahead before enough enriched uranium can be produced for even one bomb. If the present state of Iran's nuclear weapons capability appears, as judged by this month's surprise inspection, to not present a serious immediate threat or to be inducing a high level of fear in neighboring states, what then is the serious military threat posed by Iran as coagulated by the United States really all about ? Why does the United States present a public face of anxiety if not outright fear, and a threat assessment within which an attack upon Iran's nuclear industry is not ruled out ?

A subject that is rarely discussed is that Iran may already possess Weapons of Mass Destruction that are not nuclear but drawn from an aging stock of chemical weapons and nerve gases. Iran's short and medium range missile program is a limited success and there is some delivery capability. At the end of the day an old missile that missed its target but nonetheless delivered a potent biological weapon is very dangerous but there is almost no discussion of this problem in the press. '24' and a handful of real world biochemical weapons events inside the United States aside, has the neocon establishment judged such weapons as not scary enough to capture the attention of either the public or the military? The question must once again be asked, what are the United States real objectives in the current confrontations if there is no immediate or medium term nuclear threat emanating from Iran?

Of Madmen and Pandora's Box 1

America has two carrier battle groups in offshore waters with a third for backup or rotation assignments. These naval battle groups built around nuclear powered aircraft carriers while not invincible to asymmetric warfare strategies, present a formidable defense. Accordingly, the Iranian navy has developed 'asymmetric' protocols for attacking United States carrier battle groups. Trapping US forces in the Persian Gulf and then unleashing naval swarming tactics would present serious problems. The Iranian Air Force is not trivial and in spite of ongoing problems at every material level, it would inflict casualties upon the United States Air Force. However, the bottom line is that the United States would prevail, the mismatch between respective armed forces is very, very large.

Each carrier battle group has enough firepower to savage the Iranian nuclear industry and set back its activities and development by a decade at least, if not obliterate the program entirely. Furthermore, several ships of the rarely mentioned United States nuclear powered submarine fleet are assuredly in the Persian Gulf region and their firepower from Tomahawk Cruise Missiles is truly awesome. A comprehensive attack on the Iranian nuclear industry would cause serious collateral damage throughout much of the country as there are more than 300 potential targets. Damage to essential infrastructure is unavoidable and there would be, many civilian casualties. Iran would be provoked to immediately close the Straits of Hormuz - through which moves 16mbbl/day. Blocking of these waters by sinking significant ship tonnage and then lighting surface oil fires would not be difficult.

Such an attack and Iran's response would further, if not completely, isolate the United States from the world community. There is little doubt that a global oil and gas supply crisis would quickly follow, that would quickly plunge the United States and Europe into their worst economic depressions in history. The United States would free fall to a second rate power, seriously crippled by inflation, oil and gas rationing, and very high costs of military and civilian goods and services, costs too high for the citizenry at large to easily digest. The dollar would be severely weakened and no longer the single standard and currency of international trade.

Oil at $150/bbl might become a reality. not a prediction that is quickly dismissed as a fantasy of 'leftists' obsessed with doom day scenarios. However, oil pricing is not a simple matter. There is a complex relationship between the price of crude at the well head and that of oil derived products, runaway consumerism in the United States, lack of USA refining capacity and corporate deceit and market manipulation. Nonetheless, extreme oil prices are very possible. Oil at $150/bbl would cause military budgets to be chained to levels that slow training, maintenance and development of human and technological assets to a small fraction of present day levels. China would likely dominate the international scene and alone achieve and retain super power status. Russia and India would continue to have robust economic growth, their costs of both civilian and military infrastructure assets, goods and services would be manageable and balanced. What could possibly induce America's neoconservative imperialists to open a Pandora's Box of such cascading crises?

Iran's Black Gold, Oil and Natural Gas

Iran's oil reserves are considerable and they provide 80-90% of export earnings for the country and over 40% of the government budget. Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer, operates OPEC's largest tanker fleet and has proven oil reserves amounting to 10% of the world total. Note that the vast majority of Iran's oil reserves are located in the southwestern Khuzestan region which is near the Iraqi border. Current crude oil production capacity is about 3.8 million bbl/d which is approximately 60% of 1974 levels. The effects of two wars (Iran-Iraq, Gulf War,) economic sanctions and government mismanagement since the 1978/9 revolution are thereby highlighted. According to the DOE, "Iran's existing oil fields have a natural decline rate estimated at 8 percent onshore and 10 percent per year offshore. The fields are in need of upgrading, modernization, and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) efforts such as gas reinjection." EOR is particularly important as 60% of Iran's oil fields are more than 50 years old. Current recovery rates are approximately 2/3 of the industry world wide average. Iranian oil exports are managed through complicated buy back and swap contracts, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan figure prominently in the latter arrangements. The Iranian constitution prohibits the granting of petroleum rights on a concessionary basis or direct equity stake

Iran exports crude from four large terminals of which the famous Kharg Island is by far the largest and whose capacity is under expansion. Iran's' largest oil buyers are Japan, China, South Korea and Italy in that order. The Azadegan field in Khuzistan (adjacent to Iraq border) discovered in 1999 is the largest oil reserve find in 30 years. Japan will figure prominently in its development but there are still disagreements over mine clearing. First production of medium sour crude might come online in 2009, or 2010. A very large, shallow water offshore discovery at Dasht-e Abadan near the port city of Abadan may be of a magnitude comparable to Azadegan. Regarding the important oil discoveries in the Caspian Sea, Iran is the only country that can provide a pipeline route between the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. This Bibliography indicates some of the important foreign players now active in the development of Iran's oil reserves.

Iran is an importer of gasoline due to a shortage of refinery capacity, and the price of gasoline is kept artificially low by government subsidies that are now up for review amidst contentious arguments. Ironically, Iran is the second largest importer in the world of gasoline after the United States.

Iran has an estimated 970 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in proven natural gas reserves, second only to Russia. According to DOE data, perhaps 62% of these gas fields have yet to be developed. Natural gas accounts for half of Iran's domestic energy consumption and prices to both industrial and private customers are kept artificially low by the government. Iran's largest natural gas field is South Pars and it has already attracted over 15 Billion USD for development but progress has been slowed by the presence of sulphur mercaptans in the crude oil, contractual arguments and politics. Nonetheless the first of 28 phases came online in November 2002, with four additional phases in production by 2006. Norway, South Korea, Royal Dutch Shell and Spain are important foreign partners in the ongoing development of South Pars. "The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will build the IGAT-7 natural gas trunkline, to take natural gas from Assaluyeh to Iranshahr and also to the Pakistani border", a circumstance that illustrates the complex interface between Iran's Islamic politics and the energy industry. Then again, perhaps the IRGC only wanted, and obtained, a long term and secure asset with good ROI.

Iran wishes to greatly expand its natural gas exports. Present and potential new buyers include Ukraine, Europe, India, Pakistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Taiwan, South Korea. China is moving aggressively on new buy and project construction contracts. Iran was the first country in Asia to export gas by pipeline, and has more than 4,000km of important pipelines that span the country. Expanded natural gas product could be exported via pipeline, LNG tanker or planned terminals. In 2002, Iran and Turkey opened a long delayed major pipeline. Exports to Turkey in 2007 could reach 960 million cubic feet per day by 2007. Iran has important plans to extend gas imports into northern Greece via a pipeline extension from Turkey, and from there into Europe via Bulgaria and Romania. Alternatively, an undersea pipeline to Italy is under study. Yet Iran's northern regions are far from the producing gas fields. In December 1997, Turkmenistan launched the $190 million Korpezhe-Kurt Kui pipeline to Iran, the first natural gas export pipeline in Central Asia to bypass Russia, and intended to serve Iran's north. There are several additional large pipelines in the planning stages in which Iran is a partner and each will have great influence on regional and continent wide energy supplies. Those involving India and Pakistan are particularly important's: see bibliography below.

U.S. sanctions limit Iran to non-U.S. liquefaction technology, which is significant as most LNG plants use processes developed by U.S. companies. Currently, Iran has no LNG facilities.

Of Madmen and Pandora's Box 2

Well then, why consider an attack on Iran's nuclear industry, when that action will trigger highly destructive blow back? Why does the Bush administration not discuss similar plans for North Korea, a highly dangerous, rogue state? ( Because any aggressive move against North Korea would precipitate an invasion of South Korea and nuclear armed missiles launched at Japan.) Why is the threat to regional, if not world stability, of the Israeli nuclear weapons capacity never discussed ? (Because Israeli is a powerful ally, regional proxy for US policy and forever glued to our interests.) Likewise the nuclear industries and weapons programs of India and Pakistan receive little scrutiny.(Pakistan is an 'official ally' in the war against terrorism yet Mushareff is not entirely trustable or in control of his country. Pakistan's military intelligence has long aided the Taliban and by implication made life a bit easier for Al Qaeda. India is also an ally, a genuine stable democracy and quietly provides an important counterweight to Pakistan.)

Iraq was singled out for invasion because of its prodigious oil and gas reserves. Iran may have been placed in 'America's gunsights' for the same reason, such is the thesis of these articles. . As always United States foreign policy is uneven, distorted and forever favors self serving, strategic interests - read military-technological-corporate interests. I believe the motivation for the Bush/Cheney team to seriously consider an air attack on Iran's nuclear industry is strong, and the rationale to do so is similar to that which created an invasion of Iraq. First steps in the protocol are familiar and based upon deceit, lies and false intelligence: a) that Iraq is the major source of the most powerful bombs used against American forces in Iraq (false); b) that Iraq finance and intelligence agents influence Islamic movements in many countries from Palestine to Iraq and beyond (true); and c) that Iran's nuclear enrichment program is far advanced, the Iranian motivation to use such weapons on American interest is high (false).

Following upon this stew of half truths and deceit, it follows that Iran could be crippled for a very long time, and American energy needs well served, if the Iranian natural gas and oil industries were under American control. That domination need not be invasion and occupation of the country by land as was the case in Iraq. Such a military plan has been judged by all experts as impossible to execute with success as Iran has a large military, effective national air force and coastal navy. Bogged down in the Hell of Iraq, the United States has few troops available for a land invasion of Iran. Rather, draconian control of Iran's Black Gold could be exerted via several of the largest international oil companies whose interests coincide with American government priorities. Such a coalition might also attempt to bring in the IMF as a partner. After an American attack upon Iran's nuclear industry, this coalition would economically and financially 'subdue' an eviscerated and hapless government situated within a society torn by political and social divisions, and struggling with the nation wide destruction of essential infrastructure - the damage left by a brief and almost exclusively air war with the United States. Does such a plan sound familiar?

Does the size of Iran's oil and gas reserves and associated transcontinental pipelines justify such a mad plan? Assuredly they do if one is infected with extreme hubris, imperialistic mania and a lust for power that goes beyond all reason. Successful execution of such a plan would see the United States and a consortium of international energy companies in complete control of Iran's oil, gas and nuclear industries (including long distance pipelines) that are critical to regional and continent wide distribution of oil and gas. Add that resource control to that could be locked down by a successful subjugation of violence in Iraq, and the quantity of oil and gas reserves now controlled by imperialistic America is impressive. Ah, but what if American troops are finally withdrawn from Iraq before the killing fields of that country can be smothered and controlled?

An air attack upon Iran's nuclear industry will cause unavoidable collateral damage. It will set loose several horsemen of a modern day apocalypse. Iran will completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz and very likely will unleash extremely dangerous, terrorist networks long established throughout the Middle East and Europe. As those 'horsemen' wreak havoc across Mesopotamia and beyond, terrorism attacks and spectacular oil/gas prices will cripple several of the world's most important economies. The USA economy will implode, riding as it does upon the last months of an unsustainable housing boom based in 'false credit and excessive debt', complete denial about the size and domestic effects of the military/defence budget and the extravagant printing of money by the US Federal Reserve, Cascading effects would seriously effect many other countries large and small, and the world changes in a dramatic and cruel manner. Visit Global Economy at Asia Times where there are good articles that speak directly to the complex, interplay between the US economy (consumerism, debt, corporate market manipulation etc) and oil pricing.

In conclusion, let us acknowledge that Admiral William Fallon, chief of CENTCOM, blocked deployment of a third carrier group to the Persian Gulf this past winter. The Admiral's views on the Bush presidency madness are very clear. "Fallon's refusal to support a further naval buildup in the Gulf reflected his firm opposition to an attack on Iran and an apparent readiness to put his career on the line to prevent it. A source who met privately with Fallon around the time of his confirmation hearing and who insists on anonymity quoted Fallon as saying that an attack on Iran "will not happen on my watch".

Asked how he could be sure, the source said, Fallon replied, "You know what choices I have. I'm a professional." Fallon said he was not alone, according to the source, adding, "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box." Admiral Fallon was nominated to this position by Secretary of Defense, William Gates. We have here rare public disclosure about a specific event that pertains to the almost invisible 'revolt' of several of the highest ranked military officers in the nation as they struggle to contain some of the worst aspects of neoconservative imperialism's latest incarnation.

Core Bibliography (First reads should be * articles.)

America's Iran policy and Iran's Possible Response

1. *Fixing' Iran Intelligence - by John Prados;
2a,b. U.S. puts squeeze on Iran's oil fields - by Kim Murphy; .... Neo-cons drive Iran divestment campaign - by Jim Lobe;
3a,b. Can Europe End the Lose-Lose Game with Iran? - by Trita Parsi.... Damascus moves to center stage - by Sami Moubayed;
4. UK: Ministers tell Centrica not to buy Iranian gas - by Oliver Morgan
5a,b. *How Iran will fight back - by Kaveh L Afrasiabi; .... Ahmadinejad says Iran will retaliate - by David R. Francis;
6a,b. * Is Imperial Liquidation Possible for America? - by Chalmers Johnson. Although Iran is not mentioned in this brilliant essay, here is the anatomy laid bare of the lethal contextual envelope that surrounds all United States foreign policy. .... *Commander's veto sank Gulf buildup. "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box." - by Gareth Porter;
7. * Iran: A careful look before a US leap - by Richard M Bennett;
8a,b,c,d. Iran war 'could triple oil price' - BBC News; .... Iran issues stark warning on oil price - by Robert Tait; .... Iran leaves options open on 'oil weapon' - by Hiedeh Farmani; .... Why Iran oil cutoff could be suicidal - Aljazeera and agencies;

Iran's Nuclear Industry

9. *Iran - Nuclear Facilities - globalsecurity.org;
10. *Iran all bluff and bluster, but no bomb - yet - by Richard M Bennett;
11. *Atomic Agency Concludes Iran Is Stepping Up Nuclear Work - by David E. Sanger;
12a,b,c. The myth of an Israeli strike on Iran - by Kaveh L Afrasiabi; .... To Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Bomb Program, 350 Targets Must Be Hit - DEBKAFile;.... Will They Nuke Iran? - by Alexander Cockburn;
13. The Iran-OMV deal is yet another strike against the sanctions regime - by Kaveh L Afrasiabi;
14. A nuclear (mis)adventure in Isfahan - by Pepe Escobar;
15. Iran Attacks an Iraqi Nuclear Reactor - Institute for National Strategic Studies;
16a,b,c. Israel's Osirak Attack - Institute for National Strategic Studies; .... Israeli air strike against the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor - Wikipedia; .... Osirak: Threats real and imagined - by Patrick Jackson.

Black Gold and Natural Gas in Iran

17. *DOE Country Analysis - Iran - Energy Information Administration (US Gov);
18. *Iran's Oil Reserves by GlobalSecurity.org;
19. Petroleum: Iran's black curse - by Vahid Isabeigi;
20. Iran Oil Minister: Iran Not Supplying Extra Oil to the Market - by Hashem Kalantari;
21. Iran Oil Revenue Quickly Drying Up, Analysis Says - Associated Press;
22. Iran: Khuzestan Arab insurgents hit oil target for the first time. - DebkaFile;
... Recent international partnerships (many selections from rigzone.com)
23. India finds a $40bn friend in Iran - by M K Bhadrakumar;
24. Oil Cos, Seeking Reserves, See Iran as Long-Term Bet - by Sally Jones;
25. Upgrade speeds Soroosh early production - by Rajiy Lekhy;
26. Japan, Iran sign major oil deal, US dismayed - by Richard Hanson;
27. Iran Oil Min: Deal With Sinopec[China] for Yadavaran Due in Weeks - by David Winning;
28. Norway Says Energy Issues Discussed with Visiting Iranian Minister - by Elizabeth Cowley & Spencer Swartz;
29. Addax Reports Northern Iraq Discovery - Addax Petroleum Corp;
30. India finds a $40bn friend in Iran - by M K Bhadrakumar;
31. Petrobras to Invest $470M in Iran's Caspian Sea - by Bernd Radowitz;
32. Iran will grant Total, Shell and Repsol upstream development contracts in the Gulf's giant South Pars gas field - Reuters;
33. Iran Sets March Deadline on Total's Gas Field Invest - by Hashem Kalantari;
34. Costs Threaten Total-Petronas Iran LNG Project - by Anne-Sylvaine Chassany;
35. Shell defies American pressure and signs £5bn Iranian gas deal - by Terry Macalister;
... Pipelines
36. The geopolitics of pipelines - by Paola Ceragioli and Maurizio Martellini;
37. *Iran takes over Pipelineistan - by Pepe Escobar;
39. Iran, Armenia open gas pipeline - BBC News.
Core Bibliography (First reads should be *articles.)
America's Iran policy and Iran's Possible Response
40. a,b,c, d. Robert Gates, the new American Secretary of Defense occupies the most powerful Cabinet position in the United States government. He will have deep influence upon America's policy towards Iran.
After Rumsfield, a New Dawn ? by Mark Perry ....The Gates Inheritance by Roger Morris .... The World that Made Bob {Gates) by Roger Morris. ... . .*The CIA and the Gates Legacy by Roger Morris.
41. The second coming of Saladin by Pepe Escobar.
42. The Hidden Hand of Iran in the Resurgence of Ansar Islam by Lydia Khalil.
43a,b. Bush Policy Detained in Iran; American accusations against the Iranians have only escalated, by Karen Greenberg ... *US Foments Unrest and Spurns Overtures; Countdown to War on Iran by Alain Gresh; .
44. Tehran ignores the bluff and bluster by M K Bhadrakumar.
45. Gambit to link Iran to the Taliban backfires by Gareth Porter.
46. *Could al Qaeda Attack Trigger War With Iran? by Gareth Porter.
47. *Islamic Terrorists supported by Uncle Sam by Prof Michel Chossudovsky - "Black Ops" directed against Iran, Lebanon and Syria.
48. *The Pentagon's Blank Check by Robert Dreyfuss.
49. Party head lambastes Lieberman on Iran by Peter Urban.
50. The Day After We Strike Iran by Gary Leupp.

... United States Government, Military, Warfare and Foreign Policy - Congressional Documents (These are studies done by the Congressional Research Service division of the Library of Congress as prepared for Members and Committees of Congress.)
51. The Iran Sanctions Act by Kenneth Katzman, foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division - w/table of post 1999 foreign investment in the oil and gas sector, January 25, 2007; 6pp pdf document.
52. *FY2008 Defense Authorization Bill by Pat Towell, Stephen Daggett, and Amy Belasco, foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, May 11, 2007; 43pp pdf document.
53. *Declarations of War and Authorizations for the Use of Military Force: Historical Background and Legal Implications by Jennifer K. Elsea, Legislative Attorney, American Law Division; and Richard F. Grimmett, Specialist in National Defense, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division; March 8, 2007; 115pp pdf document.
54. Information Operations, Electronic Warfare, and Cyberwar: Capabilities and Related Policy Issues by Clay Wilson, Specialist in Technology and National Security, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, March 20, 2007; 17pp pdf document.
55. *U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues, by Amy F. Woolf, Specialist in National Defense, Foreign Affairs, Defense, April 3, 2007; 30pp pdf document.

Iran's Nuclear Industry
56. *Iran has reconfirmed the country's steady progress on its centrifuge technology by Kaveh L Afrasiabi. IAEA, warned that Iran probably could enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear bomb in three to eight years.
57. *Iran's Nuclear Program: Between Denial and Despair by Pierre Goldschmidt.
58. *A Catch-22 Nuclear World by Dilip Hiro.

Black Gold and Natural Gas in Iran
59. Iran's yearly oil revenue to exceed $52b ... Mehr News Agency.
60. Status report on the Iranian oil and gas industries as of July 2006 from rigzone.com.
61. *Revenge of the Shia? by Martin Walker - 50pp paper about Iran's energy industries both black gold and nuclear set amidst a critical analysis of US policy, with 120 comments most of which are disciplined and informative.

... Recent international partnerships (many selections from rigzone.com)
62. *Oil Cos, Seeking Reserves, See Iran as Long-Term Bet by Sally Jones; Companies include China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP), or Sinopec, Norway's Statoil ASA (STO), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), Italy's Eni SpA (E), Total SA (TOT), Russia's Lukoil (LKOH.RS) and Austria's OMV AG (OMV.VI)
63. Iran Official: In Talks with Petrobras on Caspian Oil Blocks by Spencer Swartz.
64. *Iran and China's CNOOC Sign $16 Billion Gas Deal by Sally Jones.
65. Crescent's $1B Iran UAE Gas Deal May be Hijacked by Rivals by Ayesha Daya.
66. OMV and Iran Ink Deal for South Pars Gas Field .... OMV.
67. Iran's POGC Eyeing Bonds to Fund South Pars Development by Hashem Kalantari.

June 27, 2007. © Blumenberg Associates LLC 2007.

"He who knows the enemy and himself will never in a hundred battles be at risk." Sun Tzu.
More References added August 1 - 2009
 
Under the Hood into 2009

August 16, 2007
Tomgram: Michael Klare, Tough Oil on Tap
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174829/michael_klare_tough_oil_on_tap

Oct 18, 2007
Caspian summit a triumph for Iran
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ18Ak01.html

February 11, 2008
Iran's Proven Reserves Jump to 90 Billion Barrels, May Climb to 100
Asia Pulse Pte Ltd
URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=56550

February 11, 2008
Iran Starts Pumping Oil from Its Biggest Onshore Field
Dow Jones Newswires
URL: http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=56952


Feb 21, 2008
THE ROVING EYE
Slouching towards Petroeurostan
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JB21Dj07.html


May 29, 2009
THE ROVING EYE
Pipelineistan goes Iran-Pak
By Pepe Escobar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KE29Df02.html

Jul 1, 2009
Obama faces a Persian rebuff
By M K Bhadrakumar
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KG01Ak03.html

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a guest said:

0
old tactics with iran as was with iraq.
so familiar-read what was said way back in 1998.


year--1997
Irak is right in demanding ouster of anglo-saxon spies from hollowed Iraki's soil.In name of uno, and before that leage of friends ,and now Amnesty International, this heyena country called england has installed a lot bof speis all over World and has virtually hijacked Americans to do their domestic and foreign policies for furtherance of british (england's ) interest than even American 's interest.


These days for last few years a lot of Kurdish refugees(who by the way are more aryans than all the europeans combined-though it is irrelevant here)are escaping from Turkey because of Turkish pressure. But nobody has ever stopped Turkey from having her air space nor has anyone bobed them. and why should anyone?Who has given right to a handfull of countries to be a policeman? Could they dare demand such thing at time of so called cold war? Every december,ever since gulf war there is a show of bullying tactics by anglo-saxons in middle east. There is really no ground but excuse is created because this race feels uplifted when others are insultated. Also there is a low cost exercise in bullying any other nation by military postures. Why should Iraq not have weapons as he desires?in 1981, when the israelis had bombed the iraqui nuclear reacto(a few days before going critical) it was britain)govt, and british media) who had vwhemently opposed Israeli daring action and did a lot of anti-jewish propaganda. Atleast Begin had a reason to fear from the arab enemy of israel. even in '82 Lebanon war it was britain which was most vociferous in criticizing Isreali militay action at the same time minimizing the Isreali Airforce's achievement in destroying Bacca's valley missiles through high tech method.In fact What americans did in gulf war was what Isreali had achieved way back in '82 in Lebanon war and America obtained that military know-how from Israelis after Lebanon war. But gulf war is justifiable on basis of military superirity but not Lebanon war. In fact when an american general said that america learned a lot from Israelis' achievement then the american defense minister Winnberg said that itAmerica learned not from Israeli but from British. Ofcourse we all know that Wnnberg was (awarded sir) more of anbritish defense minister than american one. He was pro-british and anti-jewish (and antirussian and all others aswell). In fact in lebanon war the american foreign secratary was changed because the british did not like Hague's attitude. This much britain exercises influence in american affairs. Now having installed all the stooges in Arab world britain has discarded her sham veil of Arabists and openly insults(through america ofcouse because on own britain is not even a fourh grade power)the arab world.Talking about the stooge, have you wondered why these days even Yeltsin's bad health no longer makes any headline news in anglosaxon world?Before any cold that Yeltsin had was niticed and still before that any peon from Russia had a headline news ' material. The reaon is simple. Britain has installed in Russia not only a mad man likes yelstin but also a second line of stooge successor to him. After Yelstin usefullness is over then he will be replaced by those second line of british stooge who at the moment are already controlling Russia and destroying her everyday. Democracy ,as understood today, basically means any system which gives free hand to britain to exploit other races. If their is one example of what an evil this so called capitalism is and what a saviour communism(britain does not dislike communism, she dislikes other's prosperity and independence whether it comes from communism, nationalism or what ever)is: this ruinous example of Russia is the real lesson. China is right to hold on to her nationalistic pursuit. It really is a war between anglo-saxons and the rest of the world. It is a race war.Sooner the rest of the world realizes that better it would be and this danger would be sorted out.

You remember that at the height of cold war in mid 80's there was a lot of activities of C.N.D. You would expect that with so called cold war finished, this C.N.D. would be asking to the british peoples to leave the nuclear weopons given to her,out of pity and filiaty, by the United states. But exactly opposite happened. C.N.D. has been defunct since than. It is as if that was a front of the british govt. to show by way of propaganda that that country had some moral voice.In other words, C.N.D. was a sham created by the british to give them respectability. Ofcourse when a non-anglosaxon country aould perfect their nuclear weopon,as France rightly did, then there would be a lot of hue and cry by the anglo-saxons' media. France and china are right in strenghtening their independent military power. The real danger to world comes from england and her anglosaxons agents. France understand that and Germany was a fool in not supporting France in Nato meeting this Summer. Just as Cnd has been proved a sham of british propaganda, more so is the sham which goes by the name of amnesty international. It is interesting that as soon falkland war started, within a few weeks this amnesty international presented a dozier on Argentina. In the same way as soon gulf war started(soon after Iraqui's intervention in kuwait) the same amnesty international presented a dozier and report on Iraqui's atrocities. an fact many of the amnesty allegations were just a copy of what british media was saying and which later on proved to be fabrication and great big lies. But bthis did not dent the reputation of amnesty international. british propaganda ensured that. IN '88 when Dalia lama,at the height of Tibetan disturbances, visited west, the then british prime minister refused to meet Him. Later on with the demise of Russia and usefullness of China gone and with manipulation to keep power in Hongkong somehow intact, the same british media and government ,like dog, started barking at China. It is interesting that amnesty international selectively targets those very countries(as it did china after cold war) who are out of faviour(because they would not be a brtish sttoge)of the british media and govt. This is not surprizing as amnesty international is the creation of british govt, and british media. england with the most appaling record of human rights in last 200 years of her evil rule, needed some organisation to keep the others from chrging england off her past and current evil practices. In other words it went for aggresive posture in propaganda war so that others can be demoralized and stopped from ponting out the real evil which is england. That is why amnesty international is one armour of the british lies to exploit the rest of the world. Amnesty international must be ignored and an independent human watchdog (which england will simply ignore) created. One purpose of amnesty international is to create an atmosphere for hatred towards the would be vitims of british exploitation so that a victim could be blamed to have deserved the consequences. That is why ,now amnesty international sometimes threatens China, sometimes India and etc. India because india needs to be cowed down and also so that India does not make nuclear wepon and thus feel free from future american(read english and anglosaxon)aggression. This is all to create an atmoshphere of mis information. The other countries are also responsible(out of sheer inferority complex) for giving these instuments of british propaganda so much imporatance. If they simply ignore and then the british lies and then themselves go in offensive(they can do it-no problem)against british exploitation and propaganda then tose countries would not in such dire strait as they are now. Think, this deteriration has happened in only last 20 years(thogh the british have been at this game for a long time but they were not always succesful when others have been vigilant).Ignoring and fighting all this anglosaxons propaganda, the other races(yes it comes to that) must unite and support each other against this common enemy england. The other nations should also go nuclear and assemble as much arm as possible ,collaborate on it and ignoring this anglosaxon race they must be prepared for war which tjhen would be prevented otherwise it would come inevitably. The other nations need to arm themselves to protect themselves from anglo saxon race. Thinking any other way is simply kidding oneself. And it can be done and will be done.


WE throw a challenge to these low lifes-if the English feel themselves
ao powerful them let them attack and win even Irak(already weaken by u.n.sanctions)without the help of u.n.sanctioins(that means Irak would have same freedom to acquire arms and means and Arabs and Israeli had in thier war)
and with out u.s.a. England is neither Isreal of today nor Sparta of yesterday.Let them be reminded that at height of thier empire in 1917, England was almost defeated
by Germans when German army's 3/4 th division was concentrated on Eastern front. These english are that weak and coward people.But thir mouth will have to shut for ever
when all the whites ,European and Thirld world unite against this english disese.
There is no point in telling them truth, they understand only one thing which they will soon get-tatal beating physically-the only language these animals understand. Hitler,who these worship
was wrong about the jews who were only british agents-what Hitler said about jews applied not to jews but to the english(anglo-saxons).race-pity he did not do the the british what should have been done instead. Well It is never too late.


For all those who talk of globalization and protection of intellectual property right, a small news which was never in prominent place in any of english speaking papers or news but was very much reported in French media. In the last weeks of October 98 was reported in French papers that 4 different French members of European Parliament were going to raise the question of industrial espionage of some 100 each of French and German companies by england in collaboration with u.s.a. and other anglo-saxon countries like Autralia and new zealand. In other words they same countries who made a lot of hue and cry over Indias nuclear test and who are the ones pushing for intellectual property rights and globalization. Thier modus operandi? Checking all satellite bases communication(telephone, fax, internet,etc)with help of klistening devices in anglosaxon countries and spying ao all the talks and messages all over world.This illegal activity is cordinated in england. European countries are loosins billions of dollars each years through leak of confidential techiqe and discovery. Apart form the fact that for tea,china, spices and plants this thief country england never paid anything for others' intellectual property right(why does royal doulton or british tea company not pay royalty to China?) this thief country england has done theft of German technology like urea making ang consequently ammunition making. In fact Standarsd oil company of america made a lot of theft of BAAs. a Germany company and many of the bombs which fell on Germany came from german tech. stolen by anglosaxon thieves england and america. That is not counting stolen from germans the tech. to make nuclear bomb and rockets. With these stolen technology has this anglo-american race been able to bully the rest of the world. And it wants to freeze the DIFFERENCE between it and other races in stone-for ever so that it can rule others unhindered. By the same mechanism it destroyed japanes and other Asian econmis. That is why India and others need very badly neclear deterence against enemies of the rest of the world.And the rest of world wants to break from ythier cluthes but has no courage because most of thirld world is governed by the likes of traitors like manmohan singh and Ahulliavala and spineless people like Jaswant Singh and Gujral and Atal bihari Vajpaye types
 
May 21, 2007
Votes: +0

amin said:

0
where is iran

30 years history of everwinner iran have many things to learn for arrogant clowns!
by the way who defeated the evil mission eagle claw in tabbas?
 
February 01, 2011
Votes: +0

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