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Sat

17

Nov

2007

Daily Roundup from Willard Payne (Night Watch Information Service)
Saturday, 17 November 2007 20:27
by Willard Payne
SRINAGAR - Fayaz Wani of NewsBlaze reports, due to the increase in the activity of Islamic militants in Kashmir, Delhi has decided to place its units in the province on high alert especially in the summer capital Srinagar. A senior police official, speaking on the condition of anonymity stated, “Normally at this time the militants would reduce their activities, but this time there is a turn around and militants have instead intensified their activities. We are determined to thwart any attempts by militants to carry out attacks in Srinagar.” India has increased its patrols in the city and has also strengthened the security around major government and army installations. Passenger and light motor vehicles are also being searched by the army to prevent militants from transporting explosives and ammunition.
Lolab - It is no coincidence there have been more attacks and infiltration attempts than ususal just before Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf instituted the state of emergency on Nov. 3 since Islamabad - Teheran direct the militant activity. In support of Pakistan Teheran placed it miliary on full alert the day after Pakistan’s state of emergency. In just one example of the increased fighting NewsBlaze reports that in just the past 24 hrs at least 10 Islamic militants and two Indian soldiers have been killed in firefights 65 miles (110 km) from Srinagar.
Hafruda Forests - In an alarming new development NewsBlaze has just reported for the first time Indian troops have recovered from a searched area, a Chinese made anti-tank gun of 82 mm. The weapon was discovered in the Hafruda Forests. Islamic militants have never had this kind of effective weapon before, which is obviously intended for use against Indian army convoys and this is just a minute indication of Beijing’s support for Islamabad. In November last year China’s Ambassador to India stated publicly northeast India-Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory. Delhi of course rejected his statement, but the following month China-Pakistan conducted ground forces maneuvers just west of Kashmir. Arunachal Pradesh is the same area China attacked India in October 1962 for one month and the fighting extended south into Assam state on the Bay of Bengal. India fired its Defense Minister afterward and has recently increased its defenses in Arunachal Pradesh stating there will be no repeat of 1962.
India Brigadier R. Bhonsle (ret.) - reported in his daily news scan (Nov. 15) the anti-tank gun has an effective range of 500 meters against tanks and 1,500 meters against light armored vehicles. The Islamic uprising against India’s occupation of Kashmir, a Muslim majority province, began in 1989-November. That is why I believe Teheran-Islamabad have timed the new wave of attacks for this month with the express purpose of forcing India to use its hot pursuit policy and attack the Islamic bases inside Pakistan that have been used for training and for what are called launching pads. If these attacks and infiltration attempts continue to increase and even more importantly if they become more effective and begin to inflict heavier losses against the Indian units then Delhi will no longer feel it has the uprising “contained". Delhi would have no other choice but to attack Pakistan and the fourth war would no longer be limited, but (f)allout and this is the 60th anniversary of the first war October 1947-January 1948. The first war started when Pakistani tribesmen began advancing on Srinagar.
Beirut - “The world is looking at Lebanon. This is a critical time for the future of this great country. If responsibilities are not shouldered it might be moved to the brink of the abyss.” Those are the ominous words of United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon speaking to reporters after his meeting with Lebanese political leaders in Beirut. Asharaq Al-Awsat/Reuters report he then attempted to end his warning on a note of hope, but that hope is probably completely unrealistic when one realizes the opposition to the current government has increased public support including the army and the political elite connected to France and the West is deathly afraid of being out of power. The coalition opposition led by Hezbollah, armed and financed by Teheran, is openly working with Christian nationalists like fomer general Michel Aoun, and with the end of the fighting against Fatah al-Islam in the north near Tripoli in August, nearly all of Lebanon’s military has lined up with Hezbollah and prepared to support them when they enter the ongoing war against Israel.
Beirut - Lebanon Today-Daily Star are also reporting the serious concerns being expressed by the religious leader most closely connected to France, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir who stated Thursday, “The situation we are going through now is worse than it was 30 years ago.” He is referring to the start of Lebanon’s fifteen year civil war in 1975, which Paris helped begin using the Maronite Catholics and France still claims Lebanon owes them billions of dollars of debt due to the war. That is why I believe the Christian nationalists have emerged supporting Hezbollah because Teheran may have told them with Iran the debt will be written off.

The political D-Day is November 21 when the election for the new President is to be conducted by Parliament. The currrent President is Emile Lahoud, a Maronite but a close ally of Iran-Syria. Damascus never officially recognized Lebanon which was created by the French in 1920 and Teheran knows a new government could result in the West having one less country in the region no longer under the West’s control. Observers predict no consensus candidate will be chosen and the government will then dissolve into two warring divisions, one representing the current government and the interests of the West and the other representing the coalition led by Hezbollah. With the new support from the army it greatly improves the opposition’s chances of wining the next civil war and even trapping the 12,000 European units in UNIFIL in the south near Israel’s border and nothing would please Teheran more. But it could distract Hezbollah from entering the current war against Israel and Teheran wants war with the West, its main international rival, more than with Israel.

Only the Balkans will be a greater crossfire conflict than Lebanon.
Kosovska Mitrovica - B92 reports Serbia Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac has announced Serbia’s army is in a state of “unusually high alert” in the south of the country and they will not allow the south to become unstable. This is of course in response to the highly pubilcized announcements by the para-military Albanian National Army (ANA) and their claim of patrolling the northern towns of Serbia’s Kosovo province, a region they are dedicated to making not only independent but a part of Greater Albania. Sutanovac also stated in meetings he had with NATO-KFOR he had “received serious guarantees there was determination to maintain peace.” Based on reports from the Serbian leaders in northern Kosovo the ANA has plans to attack the ethnically divided city of Kosovska Mitrovica just across Kosovo’s border with the rest of Serbia.

Daily Roundup from Willard Payne (Night Watch Information Service)
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