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Sat

24

Nov

2007

Daily Roundup from Willard Payne (Night Watch Information Service)
Saturday, 24 November 2007 22:19
by Willard Payne
UTTAR PRADESH - At 0118 hrs IST (Indian Standard Time) the independent channel India TV received a warning in the mail about a series of bomb explosions to take place. Minutes later three closely timed explosions went off in three cities in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh killing 16 people and wounding 60 according to latest reports. The cities were Lucknow, Faizabad and Varanasi, the latter having been hit last year by a bomb attack in a Hindu temple. Uttar Pradesh is not only India’s most heavily populated state, but has long been one of the centers of communal rioting between Hindus and Moslems even before India/Pakistan became independent in 1947.

I suspect this is a continuation of what I have been calling Teheran-Islamabad’s campaign of destabilization, to create internal chaos in India before the war becomes full scale and one Iran has prepared to enter in an attempt to control the vast resources of the Indian sub-continent. It is especially significant this link to IRNA, the official news site of the Teheran government, noted Indian security forces were thrown into confusion.
Lucknow - Reuters reports each explosion took place outside a court which is why some of the dead are lawyers. A group of lawyers gathered around the explosion site in Lucknow and began shouting “Down with Pakistan.” They know in the past few years these attacks have not only increased, but investigations by Delhi have concluded they have all been caused by Islamic groups supported by Islamabad and some of the operatives were trained at Islamic militant bases in Bangladesh. Both Pakistan-Bangladesh have refused India’s demand militant training camps and bases in both countries be shut down. Delhi has often threatened to attack them as part of its hot pursuit policy.

For the past few years the bomb attacks concentrated on either transportation centers, like the Mumbai commuter train bombings last year, or on religious sites. Twice this year, for instance, the religious center in Hyderabad, containing one of the most important mosques in the country, was hit by bomb attacks. But today it was target the courts, which are a symbol of India’s government. What makes today’s attack even more ominous is a threatening letter, this site mentioned Nov. 5, that was received by an Indian train official in Delhi on Nov. 2 warning of attacks against train stations in northern India. The letter was sent by Jaish-e-Mohammed one of the Islamic groups fighting India’s control over the Muslim majority province of Kashmir. The letter arrived the day before Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf imposed the state of emergency, which I suspect was established as a final step to prepare Pakistan’s population for the next full scale war with India. The Islamic uprising, that began in 1989-November, is actively supported by Teheran-Pakistan and has been designed as part of the preparation.

In response to today’s attack the capital Delhi has been placed on high alert as were the cities of; Mumbai-Hyderabad-Bangalore. If Jaish-e-Mohammed is able to carry out the attacks on India’s train stations it would definitely force Delhi to use its hot pursuit policy and the fourth war between the two countries would be underway.
Beirut - A heavily armed political vacuum in the state of Lebanon has now become the government with this announcement Friday by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berry on the fifth postponement of the Parliament session to elect a President, “To allow for more consultations to arrive at the election of a President…the session is postponed for Friday, November 30.” The opposition political forces, led by Hezbollah, boycotted the session and that prevented any possible two-thirds majority vote. Al Jazeera reports the current government, led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, supported by Paris and the West, has threatened to elect a President with a majority vote but since it would not be the two-thirds, as required by the constitution, Hezbollah has stated that would in effect be a coup. As the situation now stands the current President Emile Lahoud, a member of the opposition, which is supported by Teheran-Damascus-Riyadh, has refused to hand over power to the Prime Minister because Lahoud does not recognize the Siniora government. The Army is now heavily deployed throughout the city with troops and tanks at major intersections and the downtown area where the Parilament building is located is off limits. Extra security is also in place around the five star hotel where dozens of government ministers, opposed to Teheran-Damascus, are under guard as they have been for the past two months due to fear of assassination. Teheran’s assassination campaign of Lebanese leaders close to the West increased in February 2005 with the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and Iran has caused a number of assassinations since then. I would not be surprised, if when fighting breaks out in a new civil war, the first building Hezbollah and opposition groups target is the hotel where the pro-West ministers are in effect interned.

But what could happen to prevent another civil war has been indicated by President Lahoud since he has mentioned he may declare an interim government headed by the military under a state of emergency. That would in effect be a military coup sponsored by Teheran-Damascus since the rest of Lebanon’s army, in the north, has decided to support the opposition ever since the three month battle against the suicide unit Fatah al-Islam at Nahr al-Bared outside Tripoli near the Syrian border. Lebanese army units in the south, near Israel’s border, had been working with Hezbollah since last year’s war. When the fighting this year ended in August, at Nahr al-Bared, not only did Damascus congratulate Lebanon on its victory, but the head of Lebanon’s army General Michel Sulieman stated Lebanon can now concentrate on its main enemy-Israel.

The military government could state any political leader opposed to new elections could be placed under arrest, but I suspect Teheran wants the war with Israel to resume before then and with the 12,000 European troops in UNIFIL in south Lebanon caught in the crossfire.
Teheran - “This is the calm before the storm.” That was just one of the statements by the chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Mohammad-Ali Ja’fari, speaking Friday to students at Teheran University. Ja’fari continued by saying Iran had been patient with the West, but all the leader of the Islamic Revolution had to do was give the order and Iran’s military was definitely ready to defeat the enemy. I suspect Teheran wants fighting to erupt heavily on a number of fronts simultaneously against the West, Iraq-Persian Gulf-Israel-Lebanon-Southeast Europe. Recently Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated the West could not defeat Iran with its “rusty” weapons. There is some truth to his statement. In the late 1990s CNN showed some Pentagon nuclear warheads at a base somewhere out West and they were all rusty.
Daily Roundup from Willard Payne (Night Watch Information Service)
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